In that light, Egypt should minimize trips to Washington, D.C., New York, and Brussels, and instead use its diplomatic resources to improve its relations with the other riparian states. Tawfik, Rawia Discussion Paper 5/2015 . Gebreluel, G. (2014). Since plans for Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) were first announced in 2011, Cairo has viewed the project as a serious threat to the country's water supply. Given agricultures importance to pro-poor economic growth, Egypt, which has significant experience and expertise in irrigation agriculture, can share some of that expertise with other countries in exchange for increased trade with them. Ethiopia should get its fair share of water that originates in Ethiopia. The multi-services provided by the hydropower development and its technical advantages could be driving forces for local, regional and national development, and a catalyst for sustainable development. Trilateral talks between Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan to finalise an agreement on a cooperation framework for the GERD have been mediated by the African Union, World Bank and United States. On March 4, 1909, the Copyright Act of 1909 became law, making infringement of a copyright a federal crime for the first time. Ethiopia could argue that those imperial powers did not foresee the decolonisation of Africa and that this represented a watershed event that profoundly changed the foundation on which the Nile Water Treaties were constructed. Such a mitigation program can make it much easier for Egyptian and Sudanese authorities to cooperate with Ethiopia and the other riparians in creating and adopting an agreement for management of the Nile. Alaa al-Zawahiri, a member of the Egyptian National Panel of Experts studying the effects of the Renaissance Dam, believes as much. The final touches to these plans were added in 2005 and 2007, and one involves nine hydroelectric dams along the Gebale Dawa to produce some 1,300 MW of electricity for export. Another difficulty for Egypt is that making this argument (i.e. It also codified the principles of equitable and reasonable utilisation and no significant harm (essentially importing from the Watercourses Convention). Faced with the anachronistic Nile Waters Treaties on the one hand and the absence of a suitable replacement on the other, discussions about the Dam have fallen into something of a stalemate. Construction on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam began in 2011 and it is currently nearing completion. The Nile waters have historically been governed by the Nile Waters Treaties. These colonial-era agreements comprise (i) the 1902 Anglo-Ethiopian Treaty (with the UK representing modern-day Sudan); (ii) the 1929 Anglo-Egyptian Treaty (with the UK representing modern-day Kenya and Uganda) and (iii) the 1959 Egypt-Sudan Treaty (with the UK now absent as a result of decolonisation). [35] In response, Ethiopia threatened military force to defend the dam and protect its interests (The New Arab, 2020a). In: Yihdego, Z. et al. Another important area of cooperation is research, especially in areas like climate change, the fight against terrorism and extremism, and human rights. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. Egypt wants control and guarantees for its share of Nile waters. The results indicated that the negative impacts on Egyptian water resources are dominant. It was in the hope of protecting Lake Turkana against such threats that it was listed as a World Heritage Site. Subsequent impact studies were performed by the European Investment Bank and the African Development Bank, and in the light of the results, these banks cancelled their funding for Gibe III. Therefore, a negotiated position that favours Ethiopia is likely to be reached once it becomes politically palatable enough inside Egypt. It imports about half its food products and recycles about 25 bcm of water annually. Since 2015, technical reports on the potential impacts of the dam have failed to reach a consensus within the TNC (Maguid, 2017). (2012). The Eastern Nile Basin comprises Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia. In short, the Nile Waters Treaties do little to constrain Ethiopias ability to construct the Dam. By Ambassador Gurjit Singh*. All three countries have a vested interest in a properly operated dam. However, by far the largest of these projects is the GERD, which was announced in 2010 and work on which was launched in 2011 by means of a nationwide fundraiser in which Ethiopian civil servants were reportedly obliged to volunteer a months salary to invest in GERD bonds. If it is allowed to reach dangerous levels, water scarcity has the potential to trigger conflicts. Ultimately, all the water is allowed to pass downstream such that there is no net loss of flow (with the exception of water lost to evaporation). The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam will have negative impacts not only on Egypt but also on poor communities in Ethiopia as well as on its Nile Basin neighbours Ethiopia's strategy for dam construction goes far beyond developmental goals. [18] The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) is a 6000 MW hydropower project on the Blue Nile, which the Ethiopian government plans to build to fulfill the country's energy needs. Following the fall of Mengistu Haile-Mariams regime in Ethiopia in 1991, Ethiopia experienced a remarkable rise in the construction of dams and hydroelectric power stations. It too has legal arguments it could adduce in support of its position that the Dam is permitted under international law. However, another trend stresses the need to approach the question from a broader and more holistic perspective. Addis Ababa has said the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), a $4bn hydropower project, is crucial to its economic development and to provide power. According to Baradei, hydropower dams create immense turbulence in the water, where chemical reactions such as dissolved oxygen can destroy fauna and flora. It will be the largest hydropower project in Africa. But this did not rule out eruptions of tension, not just between local communities and the central government, but also between Ethiopia and its neighbours. Also, the Sudanese Foreign Ministry later held the Egyptian side accountable for failure of these negotiations. Another impressive snippet of information is that the Government of Ethiopia is financing the entire project, along with loans mainly from China. However, this threatens the basin's long-term sustainability (as water use expands beyond what is environmentally feasible) and suboptimal in terms of capital allocation (as higher water use upstream may make downstream projects uneconomical (Swain, 2011). . Since then, there has been a constant stream of complaints regarding the social and environmental impacts on downriver areas, including large displacements of local populations. Salman, S.M.A. It's very unpredictable and it can be very dangerous," says Pottinger. This is a matter of acute concern given that Egypt depends on the Nile for about 97% of its irrigation and drinking water. Moreover, with GERD, Ethiopia opts for a hydropower expansion strategy on the Blue Nile, and not an irrigation strategy. 67K views 6 months ago ETIOPIA The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, on the Blue Nile, is located around 14 km upstream of the Ethiopian-Sudan Border, at around 700 km from the Capital. However, an agreement was still far from reach. Similarly, both the final agreement between the riparian states for the allocation of the water and resources of the Nile should include a dispute resolution mechanism. In order to sustain this benefit in the long run, Ethiopias neighbouring countries will have to continue to purchase hydroelectric energy, and rainfall will have to fall at the same rate on the Ethiopian Plateau. For Ethiopia, GERD is considered an economic game-changer. Misplaced Opposition to the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD): Update. Improved relations among Egyptians, Ethiopians, and Sudanese can go a long way in enhancing the ability of their leaders to negotiate and adopt agreements that reflect the interests of citizens, especially regarding economic development and poverty alleviation. It concludes that Ethiopias legal position is far stronger and that a negotiated agreement in its favour is the most likely outcome of the dispute. In the modern era, the US used water to blackmail Egypt. One question that keeps coming up is: Will Ethiopia be willing to release enough water from the reservoir to help mitigate a drought downstream? An unsubscribe function is also at the bottom of every newsletter. Despite the fact that newly independent Sudan in the late 1950s was literally forced by a dominant Egypt into a highly asymmetrical water-sharing arrangement, Sudan has rarely challenged this arrangement. As a consequence, Ethiopia has not been able to make significant use of the rivers waters. The establishment of the Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile, up 145 and a storage capacity of 74 . These discussions highlighted benefits such as more consistent water flow, minimising the risks of flood and drought, and the potential for discounted hydroelectricity produced by the Dam. Downstream countries Egypt and Sudan have expressed concerns over the impacts of the dam on their water supply. The official narrative is that Ethiopia can uproot poverty and bring about a definitive end to social and economic underdevelopment by means of the construction of a series of mega-dams combined with the development of the national energy infrastructure. It is therefore intrinsically connected with the question of land ownership. When it is completed, with its concrete volume of 10.2 million m3, GERD will feature the largest dam in Africa. The Chinese donors who have agreed to fund it have performed no independent social or environmental impact reviews. The dispute has prompted numerous international interventions, including by Gulf Arab states, which have issued political statements and led mediation efforts. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) is a 6,450 MW hydropower project nearing completion on the Blue Nile in Ethiopia, located about 30 km upstream of the border with Sudan. Amazingly, the normally required social and environmental impact studies were only conducted three years after construction of the dam had began. First, Ethiopia could highlight that it was not a party to either the 1929 Anglo-Egyptian Treaty or the 1959 Egypt-Sudan Treaty. It can be demand-driven, typically caused by population growth, and supply-driven, typically caused by decreasing amounts of fresh water often resulting from climate change or a result of societal factors such as poverty. What are the disadvantages of the Aswan Dam? In the relatively unlikely scenario that the above points failed, Ethiopia could argue that there has been such a change of circumstances since the Nile Waters Treaties were concluded that they ought to be terminated. With regard to the mega-dams, the Gilgel Gibe III Dam and the GERD speak volumes on the substance of Zenawis political ideology. First woman appointed to the Canada Supreme Court. Second came the 2015 Declaration of Principles (DoP) which concerned the Dam specifically (rather than the Nile more broadly). Hence, it seems that such an argument would receive a warm welcome from the current bench were the matter ever to be adjudicated there. [35] The lack of international financing for projects on the Blue Nile River has persistently been attributed to Egypt's campaign to keep control on the Nile water share. It could be a treaty or merely a political declaration as the name implies. the study highlights the importance of weighing up the advantages and disadvantages of counter-hegemonic tactics in general, and of large dam projects in particular, and . Attia, H. & Saleh, M. (2021). Still, Egypt may be playing with fire if it were to press the legal significance of the DoP. Monday January 2, 2017. l located on the Blue Nile River in Ethiopia . Second, the upstream riparian states must recognize and accept Egypts near total dependence on the waters of the Nile River. Egypt and Ethiopia have once again locked horns over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Blue Nile. 1800m long and 170m high. The Chinese-financed Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), despite a recent breakdown in talks on Africa's largest development project, risks powering up a range of downstream tensions and rivalries. The writer is a professor of political science at the UAEs Zayed and Cairo universities, *A version of this article appears in print in the 9 July, 2020 edition ofAl-Ahram Weekly, Spain La Liga results & fixtures (24th matchday). "The Israeli installation of the missile system around the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam was completed after the Israeli work began in May 2019, considering that it is the first Israeli air defense system abroad that can launch (two types of missiles), the first with a range of 5 km, and the second with a range of 50 kilometer". His research indicates that rapid filling of the reservoir could lead to severe economic losses, though he notes that expanding groundwater extraction, adjusting the operation of Egypt's Aswan High Dam, and cultivating crops that require less water could help offset some of the impact. They can also cause dispute and heartachefor example, over damage to. In terms of the old or anachronistic law, two of the Nile Water Treaties do not bind Ethiopia meanwhile the third does not actually preclude the construction of a dam. The three countries have agreed that when the flow of Nile water to the dam falls below 35-40 b.c.m. Finally, Ethiopia could make a strong case that the operation of the Dam is in alignment with the core principles of international water law, namely equitable utilisation and no significant harm. These are found in Articles 5 and 7 of the Water Courses Convention respectively and, despite the scepticism outlined above, arguably form part of customary international law. The Eastern Nile Basin is of critical geopolitical importance to the Niles overall hydro-political regime. In an effort to forestall potential water conflicts such as the one brewing around the Dam, an increasing number of bilateral and multilateral water agreements have been concluded in recent decades. Thus, as with the Watercourses Convention and the CFA, the DoP does not offer a clear legal resolution to the dispute. What Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia must overcome to all benefit from the Grand Renaissance Dam. Both citizens and governments should be made part of the solution to the water-related conflicts that now threaten peace and security in the Nile Basin. It simultaneously expects that this role will change Ethiopias international status from a country perceived as poor and dependent on foreign aid to a regional power able to provide vital resources to its surrounding region. However, Sudans future water requirements will likely exceed its water quota as defined in the 1959 Agreement. In March 2015, a 'Declaration of Principles' was signed by the leaders of Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia, setting the foundations for an initial cooperation. The Blue Nile is Ethiopias largest river, with high potential for hydropower and irrigation. Therefore, all the water is eventually released downstream with the effect that there is no net loss of water to downstream states. Even then, the initial studies did not extend beyond the borders with Kenya. Thus, it is only through cooperation that Egypt, Ethiopia, Sudan, and the other riparians can peacefully resolve conflicts over the Nile and achieve the type of water use that will contribute significantly to regional economic and human development. Over the years, Egypt has used its extensive diplomatic connections and the colonial-era 1929 and 1959 agreements to successfully prevent the construction of any major infrastructure projects on the tributaries of the Nile. Addis Ababa launched the construction of the GERD under Zenawi, and work on it has proceeded at full steam ahead ever since. Perhaps the most obvious argument that Ethiopia may want to make is a rebuttal to Egypts continued reliance on the Nile Water Treaties. Despite several tripartite meetings between November 2013 and January 2014, no agreement was reached on the implementation of the IPoE recommendations and controversies were evolving around the constitution of a trilateral committee. But the project has caused concern. The announcement on Friday comes a day after Ethiopia said it had launched power production from the second turbine at the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). Match facts: Egypts Ahly v South Africas Mamelodi Sundowns (CAF Champions.. 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Egypt, fearing major disruptions to its access to the Nile's waters, originally intended to prevent even the start of the GERD's construction. This is on the basis of the principles of State succession as outlined in the Vienna Convention on the Succession of States (VCSS). These two factors could become serious problems. The toll on the local communities affected by the dams has been enormous. Indeed, as Tekuya notes, Ethiopia persistently objected to the 1929 and 1959 treaties and made clear that its failure to exploit the Nile resulted from a lack of capacity rather than a lack of a legal right to do so. Although talks chaired by President Cyril Ramaphosa of South Africa on behalf of the African Union have resolved many issues associated with the filling of the GERDs reservoir, there is still no agreement on the role that the dam will play in mitigating droughts. It also created a counter message to Egypts powerful the Nile is Egypt narrative that is familiar around the world. We shall begin with the former. The Watercourses Convention aims to regulate the uses, as well as the conservation, of all transboundary waters above and below the surface. Such a meaningful resource-sharing agreement should not only resolve the conflict over water-use rights among the riparian states, but it should help define concepts such as equitable and reasonable use and significant harm, which have been used by the downstream states in their criticisms of the GERD. Even without taking the dam into account, the largely desert country is short of water. The 6,000-megawatt Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, shown here in May 2016, is scheduled to begin producing electricity in 2017. On Feb. 26, Ethiopia temporarily suspended its . Egypt accuses. Crucially, however, neither Egypt nor Ethiopia are parties to the Watercourses Convention and so they are not bound by its terms. Created by. Cameroon's Choupo-Moting scores winner as Bayern reclaim Bundesliga top.. English Premier League results & fixtures (26th matchday), Germany Bundesliga results & fixtures (23rd matchday), Israeli delegation expelled from the African Union summit. Trilateral talks mediated by the United States and World Bank from November 2019 to February 2020 collapsed as Ethiopia rejected a binding agreement with Egypt and Sudan on the filling and operation of the GERD, which led to both downstream countries requesting intervention from the UN Security Council (UNSC) in May 2020 (Kandeel, 2020). Poverty alleviation, which is a major concern for all Nile Basin countries, could form the basis of a cooperative arrangement between all the Niles riparians. Given the advancement of the dam construction - the GERD being, as of March 2015, 40% complete, according to Ethiopia - Egypt had good reason to reconsider its position (RANE, 2015). Addis Ababa expects to sell no less than 4,000 Megawatts (MW) of electricity to its regional partners in the coming decade. The drying up of this in Central Asia has been called the worlds worst environmental catastrophe. Challenges for water sharing in the Nile basin: changing geo-politics and changing climate. The New Arab (2020b). The Dam is being built by Ethiopia on the Nile River and is fiercely opposed by Egypt. The colonial powers have departed and so to continue to enforce treaties agreed based around their interests would be irrational. In March 2015, a 'Declaration of Principles' was signed by the leaders of Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia, setting the foundations for an initial cooperation (Salman, 2017). Security implications of growing water scarcity in Egypt. In particular, the DoP takes a very strict approach to the no significant harm rule. The dam will flood 1,680 square kilometers of forest in northwest Ethiopia (an area about four times the size of Cairo), displace approximately 20,000 people in Ethiopia, and create a reservoir that will hold around 70 billion cubic . However, it also makes useful concessions to Egypt which it may wish to press. Why the Nile could see a 'water war'. A more recent trilateral meeting mediated by the African Union in mid-July, however, appeared to diffuse the situation with all three countries reaching a major common understanding towards achieving an agreement (Al Jazeera, 2020). Water scarcity is a growing problem. The 1959 agreement allocated all the Nile Rivers waters to Egypt and Sudan, leaving 10 billion cubic meters (b.c.m.) Although Egypt and Sudan are likely to resist efforts to include the other upstream riparians in the negotiations or to allow a regional organization, such as the NBI, to serve as an implementing organ, they must understand that the Nile River is a regional watercourse and its management must be approached from a regional perspective. Test. Similarly, in 2018, the UNSC noted the water security risks in African nations such as Somalia, Sudan and Mali. Sudan, caught between the competing interests of both Egypt and Ethiopia, has been changing its stance on the issue. Given the importance of water to Ethiopian agriculture, it resulted in the tragic irony that, as Thurow put it, the land than feeds the Nile is unable to feed itself. The status quo started to change when Ethiopia began construction of the Dam, just east of its border with Sudan, in 2011. The researchers looked at the dynamic interactions between the Nile's hydrology and infrastructure and Egypt's economy. First came the 1999 Cooperative Framework Agreement (CFA). Hence, it is hard to see how Egypt could make a compelling argument that it has been harmed by the Dam. Kandeel, A. On March 4, 1834, the town of York in the British colony of Canada was incorporated as the City of Toronto. (2014). Consequently, it suits Egypts interests in this context to argue that the DoP is binding, that it precludes any net loss of flow and therefore that the use of the Dam for irrigation purposes is prohibited. (2017). . Some have mythified it and claim it is the Gihon River of the Biblical Book of Genesis that encircles the entire land of Cush, thereby adding a religious dimension to the politicisation. Test. General view of the talks on Hidase Dam, built on the Blue Nile River in Ethiopia, between Sudan and Egypt in Khartoum, Sudan on October 04, 2019. Omar, A. The dam was named the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) because it was designed to bring about the economic and renewal of Ethiopia, a nation mentioned in Genesis 2:13 as the Land in which . Political instability in Egypt played an important role as the announcement of the project coincided with the resignation of President Mubarak during the Arab Spring. The Ethiopian government has always availed itself of its power to transfer local populations off land it decides to declare a public resource. 74 cubic metres. Ethiopia, Egypt, Sudan reach 'major common understanding' on dam. Yet, Ethiopia is fully aware of Somalias economic dependence on the rivers originating from Ethiopias highlands. A regional framework for the management of the Nile already existsthe Nile Basin Initiative mentioned abovewhich is a partnership among the Nile riparian states that was launched in 1999. To African commentators in recent decades, massive investments in mega-energy and irrigation projects were emblematic of the African economic emergence, and Ethiopia at that time vaunted itself as one of the fastest-growing economies in the region. Ethiopias interests in developing its water resources are driven by its growing population and high demand for socio-economic development (Gebreluel, 2014). In contrast, other watercourse states on the Nile have lent their support to the Dam. Turning then to Ethiopia. A political requirement will be to agree on rules for filling the GERD reservoir and on operating rules for the GERD, especially during periods of drought. The various warnings by experts about the dangers of the new Ethiopian dam have begun to cause panic among Egyptians, to the point of belief that the Aswan Dam will collapse once the Renaissance is completed. The crucial leverage regarding Egypts water security lies with the Blue Nile countries Ethiopia and Sudan, as the Blue Nile is the main contributor to the Nile Rivers flow downstream. In my opinion, this should be negotiable, to fill the lake over a longer period, and only when the river is sufficiently full. Crucially, however, despite being signed by Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan, the legal status of the DoP was left (deliberately) vague. Sudan and Egypt, which rely most heavily on the . In terms of putative new law, namely the Watercourses Convention and the DoP, the key principles of equitable utilisation and no significant harm seem to leave ample room to accommodate the construction of a dam for hydroelectric generation purposes. It signifies that Egypts de facto veto power on major upstream dams has been broken, and it clearly demonstrates the political will of Ethiopia to develop its water infrastructure even in the absence of a comprehensive basin agreement. However, for the reasons given above, the Nile Waters Treaties are unlikely to be considered territorial treaties.
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